619
FXUS62 KILM 080613
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
213 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-2 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE SURGES OF GULF MOISTURE COULD BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MULTIPLE SURGES OF GULF MOISTURE COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE THREE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, DRAWING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN SYNOPTIC
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN MID MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME
HEATING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-
50 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO 60-80 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT THE NBM ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS MORE COVERAGE THAN
DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ON SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE NUMBER TWO ARRIVES FROM THE GULF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO
40-50 PERCENT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND COAST.
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NOVA SCOTIA ALL THE WAY
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND REASONABLY GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS PRESENT, ALL FACTORS
THAT SUPPORT THE NBM'S 80 POP.
TO SUMMARIZE, RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OUT ACROSS THREE DAYS ON THE BACK
OF MEASURABLE RAIN YESTERDAY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO END THE DROUGHT, BUT
SHOULD PREVENT FURTHER DEGRADATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
ONE OR TWO WEEKS. QPF OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALL VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 3000-5000
FT CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS, BUT CLOUD DECKS WILL
LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS PARTS
OF THE PIEDMONT TO THE NORTH, AND MAY TRY TO REACH KFLO AND KLBT AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WHATEVER FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD ERODE BY 13-14Z AT THE LATEST. LIGHT
NNE WINDS AT 5 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
16-18Z, DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE INLAND.
WINDS CALM OR BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET, WITH MORE CIRRUS
POURING IN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. MORE
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VFR
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE NNE WILL COME DOWN
TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO THE EAST,
AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, 4-5 FT OUT 60 NM, BUT COME DOWN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOWARDS 1-2 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, 2-4 FT ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES WITH 4-7 SECOND PERIODS, LOOK
FOR A 1 FT SWELL OUT OF THE ESE AT 9-11 SECONDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY WEATHER BUILDING IN FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
EXCEED 20 KNOTS AND WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/IGB
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