229
FXUS62 KILM 081856
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE SURGES OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MULTIPLE SURGES OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH
THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UNIFORM AT ANY POINT DURING THE DAY WHICH
COULD BE QUITE FRUSTRATING FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS. SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TOTAL QPF THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING OF AROUND A TENTH, UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER HEIGHTS AND AN INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER IN COVERAGE
THAN THE BROAD AREA OF SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST.
SHORTWAVE NUMBER TWO ARRIVES FROM THE GULF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT
NORTHERN AREAS TO 40-50 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA ALL THE WAY
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND REASONABLY GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS PRESENT, ALL
FACTORS THAT SUPPORT 80-90 PERCENT POPS.
TO SUMMARIZE, RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OUT ACROSS THREE DAYS ON THE
BACK OF RECENT MEASURABLE RAIN WON'T BE ENOUGH TO END THE
DROUGHT, BUT SHOULD PREVENT FURTHER DEGRADATION FROM OCCURRING
OVER THE NEXT ONE OR TWO WEEKS. QPF OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW SHIFT NORTHWARD.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ENTER THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PERIODS OF MVFR, MAINLY DURING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, SO MAINTAINED A PROB30 AND MAY BE MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENTED WITH TEMPOS THAN A PERSISTENT FM GROUP.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, SO VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED. SW
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DRY ENOUGH FOR ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO BE PERIODIC AND (AGAIN) LIMITED TO AREAS OF
PRECIP. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AS MID LEVELS DRY AND SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE MIX STRONGER WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET, INCREASING TO 2-3 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
BRIEF INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
20-60 NM OFFSHORE WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFFSHORE. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO AROUND
10 KT SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SW THEN W THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AT 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA,
FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE ON THE NEED FOR A SCA
OVER THE 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 25 KT
WITH WEAK-MODERATE CAA, AND SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT. GUSTS LIKELY TOP
OUT AROUND 25-30 KT ON AVERAGE OVER THE 20-60 NM WATERS. MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...TRA/MAS/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
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