220
FXUS62 KILM 091825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE KEY MESSAGE SECTION TO HIGHLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, PRIOR TO MONDAY'S STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A DRY SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A DRY SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. DURING MONDAY A DEEP MOIST COLUMN WILL BE IN
PLACE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE DAY
3 SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RRQ OF H3 JET
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS DECENT UVVS. IF BETTER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR THEN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG
STORMS COULD BE GREATER. PWATS WILL DROP SHARPLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A
STORM INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AT
KMYR AND KCRE. ANY ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KILM, KMYR, AND KCRE, WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE
SW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A COLD FRONT ILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS
AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR 3 FEET OUT TO 60 NM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER
TO A N-NELY DIRECTION STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS
SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INCREASED MARKEDLY FOR THE
CAPE FEAR WATERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING SUNDAY EVENING. A
GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER GIVEN THE NELY
FETCH IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE. IMPROVED MARITIME
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, ALBEIT WEAKER, MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WITH THE TIMING.
SEAS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NELY FETCH IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
CLIMATE
THE RAIN GAUGE AT THE FLORENCE, SC ASOS (KFLO) CLOGGED DURING
THURSDAY'S RAINFALL EVENT, ONLY MEASURING APPROXIMATELY ONE-
QUARTER OF THE ACTUAL RAIN THAT FELL. SURROUNDING MESONET AND
NWS COOP STATIONS RECORDED ACCURATE TOTALS AND THE
GEOGRAPHICALLY NEAREST ONE, 0.98 INCHES, WAS SELECTED TO USE
FOR THE FLORENCE CLIMATE RECORD FOR THURSDAY MAY 7.
TECHNICIANS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO VISIT THE SITE TO UNCLOG THE
GAUGE, SO IT'S POSSIBLE RAIN THAT FALLS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY MAY NOT BE MEASURED PROPERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...TRA
MARINE...SRP/CBL
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