002
FXUS62 KILM 092350
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A DRY SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A DRY SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. DURING MONDAY A DEEP MOIST COLUMN WILL BE IN
PLACE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE DAY
3 SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RRQ OF H3 JET
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS DECENT UVVS. IF BETTER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR THEN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG
STORMS COULD BE GREATER. PWATS WILL DROP SHARPLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
20K FT OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE LOCATION OF THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS WINDOW WHERE
COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE CEILINGS 1K-3K FT BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z AS AN AREA OF RH>90% MOVES IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS
ENHANCED MOISTURE ENDS UP SLIPPING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 09Z
AND 10Z. THE PROBLEM IS THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE. HAVE NOT INCLUDED AND MVFR WITHIN THE
00Z TAFS, BUT WILL MONITOR CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR ANY
MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES
PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT BRIEF INSTANCES
OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS INCREASES LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS
AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR 3 FEET OUT TO 60 NM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER
TO A N-NELY DIRECTION STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS
SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INCREASED MARKEDLY FOR THE
CAPE FEAR WATERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING SUNDAY EVENING. A
GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER GIVEN THE NELY
FETCH IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE. IMPROVED MARITIME
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, ALBEIT WEAKER, MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WITH THE TIMING.
SEAS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NELY FETCH IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
CLIMATE
THE RAIN GAUGE AT THE FLORENCE, SC ASOS (KFLO) CLOGGED DURING
THURSDAY'S RAINFALL EVENT, ONLY MEASURING APPROXIMATELY ONE-
QUARTER OF THE ACTUAL RAIN THAT FELL. SURROUNDING MESONET AND
NWS COOP STATIONS RECORDED ACCURATE TOTALS AND THE
GEOGRAPHICALLY NEAREST ONE, 0.98 INCHES, WAS SELECTED TO USE
FOR THE FLORENCE CLIMATE RECORD FOR THURSDAY MAY 7.
TECHNICIANS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO VISIT THE SITE TO UNCLOG THE
GAUGE, SO IT'S POSSIBLE RAIN THAT FALLS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY MAY NOT BE MEASURED PROPERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SRP/CBL
CLIMATE...TRA
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