927
FXUS62 KILM 100636
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TODAY, AND INCREASED FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRAY STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
3) THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRAY STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.
A CONDITIONALLY SEVERE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DCAPE >700 WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. THE ISSUE IS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOW LEVELS. EVEN GUIDANCE WITH
STORMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW AMPLE DRYING ALOFT THAT COULD MIX OUT
ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WINDS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
MODELS HAVEN'T CHANGED APPRECIABLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, STILL ANTICIPATED TO ENTER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEW 00Z GFS AND MOST
OF THE 00Z CAMS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S SHOULD
SUPPORT UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE OF 1000 J/KG (GFS) TO NEARLY 2000
J/KG (NAM) WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED UP VERSUS WHAT WE WERE SEEING
YESTERDAY AND IT NOW APPEARS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD REACH 40 KNOTS
MONDAY. THIS IMPLIES MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS EVEN SUPERCELLS MAY
BECOME THE PREFERRED STORM TYPE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD DEVELOP IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. CAMS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE BEST IN THE CAPE FEAR
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE
BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON AREA GIVEN THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
THERE.
AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT, WARM
AND HUMID WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT (ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE)
WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP RAIN AND SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY BUT 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH LESSER TOTALS UP TO ONE-THIRD
OF AN INCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE NO CONNECTION TO GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE, SO A FORECAST OF 30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE,
DRIVEN MORE BY DYNAMICS THAN BY DEEP MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS TO
THE TAFS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS AS IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SC TERMINALS. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR UP AROUND 12Z
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME VFR STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND A
SEABREEZE BRINGING WINDS FROM ~210 TO ~180 AT ~10 KTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR RETURNS
TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE, GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME RATHER
WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
THIS FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN IT. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NEARSHORE CONDITIONS DRYING. HOWEVER
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS MEAN WE'LL
LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BREACHED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND 6 FOOT SEAS.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY VEER SOUTHERLY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SWEEP OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MODELS PAINT ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
POST-FRONTAL WINDS THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW
DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page