524
FXUS62 KILM 190709
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
309 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO LONGER ANY COASTAL FLOODING FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
UPDATED 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-95, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND, BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-95, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LEAVE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES,
WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SINKING AIR BELOW THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CREATE A DEEP WARM, DRY LAYER IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE,
SUPPORTING ABNORMALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE
MAINTAINED THEIR 850 MB TEMP FORECASTS OF +16C TO 18C (AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR),
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE DAILY
COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE SEA BREEZE.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR 90+ DEGREE HEAT INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. SINCE
FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON HIGHS REACHED 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, A FIVE
DAY STREAK WOULD ECLIPSE THIS YEAR'S EARLIER STREAK OF FOUR DAYS OF
90 DEGREE TEMPS RECORDED FROM APRIL 15-18 IN BOTH FLORENCE AND
LUMBERTON. COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
DRAGGING AIR ACROSS NEARSHORE WATER STILL NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED TO THURSDAY NIGHT,
STALLING IN THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ONCE MORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS A FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY. THERE'S REASONABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS DAY TO DAY AS WE DEAL WITH A STALLED FRONT IN OR NEAR THE AREA
AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THE WARM, HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST DAILY POP-UP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT
TRENDS FROM NON-NBM GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT LACK OF ANY PVA ALOFT WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN GENERAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS IT WAS
LAST NIGHT (BASED ON DEWPOINTS). HOWEVER, STILL ANTICIPATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MAJORITY IF NOT ALL THE TERMINALS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR IFR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CRE/ILM GIVEN THOSE SITES PROXIMITY TO
WATER/SWAMPS. DO WONDER IF THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY BOUNCING AROUND A BIT MORE THAN LAST
NIGHT, SOMETHING ALREADY BEING SEEN AT A FEW NON TAF SITES IN THE
AREA. WINDS ARE ALSO TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO DROP OFF, BUT SHOULD
SEE ALL SITES SETTLE ON CALM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FOG AT FLO/LBT
IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WHILE MYR MAY END UP
FLIRTING WITH 2SM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW STRATUS AT ANY OF THE
SITES, ALTHOUGH EXPECT TRUE CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL SITES.
WILL SEE A RETURN OF VFR AT ALL SITES BEFORE 12Z AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS 11Z. VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THROUGH
06Z.
ONCE AGAIN THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH WELL INLAND. COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEA BREEZE WILL REACH
FLO/LBT BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS, GENERALLY IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. MIDDAY SEA BREEZE
WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SHORE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS
WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10 KT WITH LIMITED GUSTS. A
SOUTHEAST SWELL 2-3 FT WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
ONWARDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT FOR NOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE WATERS. SHOULD IT, WINDS COULD TURN E TO EVEN
NE DURING FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AGAIN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON CLOSE
TO THE COAST TO ~15 KTS. SEAS WITHIN 20NMI WILL BE 2-3 FT AND 3-4 FT
BEYOND. THE PRIMARY SWELL WILL BE SE AT 8-9 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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