904
FXUS62 KILM 191728
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY ARE NOW
MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO
A LATER COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
2) RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND, BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF ARE CONNECTED BY A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST US,
AND THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SINKING AIR BELOW
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CREATE A DEEP WARM, DRY LAYER IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, SUPPORTING ABNORMALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONTINUE THEIR 850 MB TEMP FORECASTS OF +16C TO 18C (AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHICH
MAINTAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE DAILY
COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE SEA BREEZE.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR 90+ DEGREE HEAT INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. SINCE
FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON HIGHS REACHED 90 DEGREES STARTING ON SUNDAY,
A FIVE DAY STREAK WOULD ECLIPSE THIS YEAR'S EARLIER STREAK OF FOUR
DAYS OF 90 DEGREE TEMPS RECORDED FROM APRIL 15-18 IN BOTH FLORENCE
AND LUMBERTON. COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
DRAGGING AIR ACROSS NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
GUIDANCE TOOLS REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE FRONT SETTLING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, EVEN MAKING IT OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THEY ARE QUICK TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH IT LIKELY ENDING UP NORTH OF US-76 AND NEAR OR WEST OF
I-95 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP WILL INFLUENCE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IF THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ENDS
UP MORE ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS A FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WEAKENS ENOUGH TO PERMIT AT LEAST
ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTION ON THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME FOCUSED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR JUST
NORTH OF THERE. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCES EXIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONT AND THE INLAND-
PUSHING SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AT KCRE/KMYR/KILM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE ISN'T VERY AGREEABLE, LIKELY DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE MOISTURE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
EACH MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING THU. POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BENIGN, SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREVAILING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. 2-3 FOOT, 8-9 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE TOWARDS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
FRONT DRAWS NEAR, WITH A PERIOD OF EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH OFFSHORE. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 5-15 KTS, WITH ENHANCED NEARSHORE
GUSTINESS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY EACH DAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI ZONE AND 3-4 FT RANGE IN
THE 20-60NMI ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINLY DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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