465
FXUS62 KILM 200628
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
2) RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +16C TO 18C
(AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR) WILL SUSTAIN HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS DRAGGING AIR ACROSS NEARSHORE WATER
STILL NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
HIGHS FOR FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON HAVE BEEN 90+ SINCE MAY 17TH, SO A
FIVE DAY STREAK (ASSUMING +90 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY) WOULD
ECLIPSE THIS YEAR'S EARLIER STREAK OF FOUR DAYS OF 90 DEGREE TEMPS
RECORDED FROM APRIL 15-18 IN BOTH FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SERVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS IN THE CAROLINAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS A FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WEAKENS ENOUGH TO PERMIT LOW RAIN
CHANCES. ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SEA
BREEZE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE FRONT FAILS TO DROP INTO
THE CWA BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY FROM THE NBM. THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG THE
INLAND-PUSING SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BULK OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SITES 08Z-12Z. SLIGHTLY LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS
A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE ALSO A BIT
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL AFFECT THE FOG'S "STAYING POWER"
SOMEWHAT. GROUND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FLO/LBT THE QUESTION
IS WILL IT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ASOS TO PICK IT UP OR WILL IT REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS INLAND IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT
LIVED WITH VISIBILITY BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG FORMS THEN DISSIPATES.
EVEN MYR IS LIKELY TO SEE THIS BEHAVIOR. FOG WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TENACIOUS AT CRE/ILM GIVEN PROXIMITY TO WATER AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
OVER THE WATERWAYS TO EXPAND AND THICKEN ANY GROUND FOG THAT
DEVELOPS. BULK OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE 12Z BUT ISOLATED
POCKETS COULD HOLD ON THROUGH 1230Z OR SO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN SPEEDS 10-15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, BUT ZONE OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
RATHER NARROW. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE, ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF 3 FT SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT INCREASED OVER PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE SOUTHEAST SWELL REMAINS THE DOMINANT WAVE AND THE ONLY
WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH WINDS ~10 KTS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ~15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SEAS WITHIN 20NMI WILL BE 2-3 FT AND 3-4 FT BEYOND. THE
PRIMARY SWELL WILL BE SE AT 8-9 SECONDS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE DAY TO DAY STARTING THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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