956
FXUS62 KILM 231050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO
MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO
MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF.
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY, MOVING TO OUR
NORTH TONIGHT. WE'LL THEN ENTER A WARM SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS (PWATS
~2") WHERE DAILY POP-UP STORMS/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WITH STORMS, AS SHOWN BY THE
POCKETS OF 2-3" THAT SOME OF OUR AREA SAW FRIDAY. TODAY AND SUNDAY
ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNALS FOR SHORTWAVES SLIPPING AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. THESE COULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. REGARDLESS OF LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, THE CURRENT PATTERN COULD YIELD WIDESPREAD 2-3" AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS WOULD FINALLY LEAD
TO SOME MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF. FOR NOW THE DRIEST PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO AFFECT FLO/LBT TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHOULD DISSIPATEBY MID TO LATE MORNING AT THE LATEST.
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS WILL THREATEN BOTH INLAND TERMINALS DUE TO
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THE
NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC SHOWER/TSTORM ENGINE TO CRANK UP, ALTHOUGH
NOT AS PROUNCED AS FRI MORNING, BUT NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE THE DAYS INSOLATION BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WILL CARRY PREVAILING/TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THIS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT, HOWEVER ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWS PROGGED AT 1.50
TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES, AFFECT THE FA. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ALOFT TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING LATER THIS MORNING AND THRU THE
DAYTIME MORNING HRS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE EACH EARLY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLO/LBT TERMINALS. PERIODIC CONVECTION, MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, COULD RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...RIDGING FROM BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD TO AND
ONSHORE THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, THE STALLED FRONT INLAND, WILL
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY THRU SUN MORNING. MODEST SFC
PG WILL RESULT WITH ILM NC WATERS TO EXPERIENCE MAINLY SOUTH WINDS
AND FOR THE ILM SC WATERS, SE-S WINDS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT COASTAL AND AROUND 15 TO 15-20 KT FOR THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MODEST AT 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SE SWELL
AT 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM
THRUOUT THIS FCST PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEAS 3-4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SE SWELL AT 7-9 SECONDS AND AN
INCREASING NE SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AT 8-9 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/LEW
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