399
FXUS62 KILM 231742
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED IN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO LINGER IN THE 1.8-2.0" RANGE.
SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL GET TRIGGERED EACH AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND BY THE EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY FALLING DOWN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE AIDED AT TIMES BY
SHORTWAVES SPINNING OFF OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE. THIS CREATES A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2-3 INCHES, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT A
DROUGHT BUSTER, IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN IN MONTHS. A DROUGHT "DENTER," PERHAPS.
RAINFALL COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO SLIP INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS GAP
CLOSES BACK IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG (MAINLY AT
KLBT/KFLO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN) AS WELL AS FROM PERIODIC
SHOWERS/STORMS (MAINLY AT KLBT/KFLO THRU THIS EVE AND NEAR THE
COAST, MAINLY AT KILM, TONIGHT INTO SUN).
EXTENDED FORECAST...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT VSBYS) EACH MORNING (MAINLY IN THE 08Z-
12Z TIMEFRAME AT KLBT/KFLO), AS WELL AS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS (MAINLY
IN THE AFTN/EVE).
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BENIGN, SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREVAILING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE 15 KT OR LESS, GENERALLY HIGHEST EASTERN/OFFSHORE
PORTIONS NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE
AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE. WAVES WILL MAINLY CONSIST OF 3-5 FOOT SOUTHEAST
SWELLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE OUT
OF THE SSW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, MORE OF A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM, VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE SW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN LOCKED IN
AT 2-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (SANS A FEW 6 FOOTERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING).
OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES, LOOK FOR THE MAIN SE SWELL AT 6-8
SECONDS, AND THEN A SECONDARY ENE SWELL AT 8-10 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
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