412
FXUS62 KILM 240945
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
545 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO COMBINE ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST NC DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WILL HAVE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MON. ONSHORE MOVEMENT
OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS EARLY
SUN. ONCE THE DAYS HEATING COMMENCES, AND THE SEA BREEZE TAKES
SHAPE AND PUSHES INLAND, LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
WITH PWS ACROSS THE AREA PROGGED AT 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES, EXPECT
POTENTIAL 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ENDING MON 8AM, TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS
COASTAL SC. AND OF COURSE, EXPECT LOCALLY HIER AMOUNTS FROM ANY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN
ACROSS THE REGION.
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ADVECT A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE MAX FOR LATE MAY,
BASED ON CHS SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. EACH DAY, ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PROGRESS INLAND ALONG
GENERATED OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT. SOME DAYS MAY SEE
MORE OR LESS ACTIVITY THAN OTHERS, BUT THIS WILL COME INTO MORE
DETAIL AS THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT IS ESTABLISHED WITH 12-24
HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AFTER TODAY'S ACTIVITY, RAINFALL
TOTALS APPEAR PROMISING FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF. WHILE WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING AND WIDESPREAD. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE CONSISTENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GLOBAL PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE (WHICH WILL NOT RESOLVE A SCALE SMALL ENOUGH FOR SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN) ADVERTISES RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2
INCHES WEST OF I-95 AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS ARE ABOVE 1 INCH AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT A DROUGHT
BUSTER, IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE PATTERN WE'VE
SEEN IN MONTHS. A DROUGHT "DENTER," PERHAPS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESSING LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ATM, WITH PWS GENERALLY IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES RANGE, TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. INITIALLY,
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PCPN TO DOMINATE FOLLOWED BY TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS LAND AREAS DUE TO THE DAYS INSOLATION COMBINED WITH THE
MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. WILL MAINLY COVER
THIS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS. DURING THE 1ST 6 HRS,
THE INLAND TERMINALS "ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT"
COULD OBSERVE RESIDUAL IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG. WINDS
GENERALLY NE-E WEST THRU NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SE-S
EAST THRU SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THRUOUT ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR OUTSIDE THE DAILY PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBY FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION, LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DURING
THE DAILY PRE-DAWN HRS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SFC RIDGING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE SE STATES COAST, WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OVERALL RELAXED TO
MODEST SFC PG WILL PRODUCE A SSE-SSW WIND DIRECTION AT 10-15 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND AT 15-20 KT G25 KT FOR THE
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 4 FT COASTAL WATERS, 3 TO 5 FT ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
SE SWELL AT 7 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES ON TOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUPY THE LOCAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STEADY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF
WIND WAVES, 3-4 FOOT SE SWELL AT 6-8 SECONDS REMAINS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/21
DISCUSSION...DCH/21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21
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