848
FXUS62 KILM 242339
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT UNSEASONABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SHIFTS FARTHER FROM THE AREA LEADING TO LESS
FORCING OVERALL. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU WED WILL FOLLOW THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ON THU THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS AS AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT INTO SC
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WITH CHANCES THEREAFTER HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION AND UPPER PATTERN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY IN TROPICAL/CONVECTIVE REGIMES
BUT CERTAINLY SEVERAL INCHES TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY GIVEN SPOT
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE THE
MOST RAINFALL. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES GENERALLY INDICATE MEAN
TOTALS OF ~2-3" ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC (HIGHEST INLAND, ESPECIALLY
NEAR/WEST OF I-95 IN SC) WITH MAX TOTALS OF ~6-8". HOWEVER, IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT GLOBAL MODELS DON'T CAPTURE THE FINER DETAILS
OF CONVECTION WELL AND THUS ARE USUALLY UNDERDONE REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS, A FEW SPOTS COULD EASILY PICK UP MORE
THAN 8". ALTHOUGH THESE RAIN AMOUNTS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY END THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THEY SHOULD
CERTAINLY HELP PUT A NICE DENT INTO IT IN SOME AREAS. THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
THRU WED ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW
HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO 3-4 FT SSE SWELL LEADING TO STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, WITH HOLIDAY WEEKEND CROWDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED
RESCUES BY LIFEGUARDS. MODERATE RIP RISK IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
FOR BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR, AND THIS WILL BE EVALUATED FURTHER
LATER TODAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
VERY HUMID AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY TO
YIELD IFR STRATUS INLAND TONIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS AT KFLO
AT THIS TIME OF THIS WRITING (24/2330Z) IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND 25/0000Z, BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER 03Z. THIS SAME
STRATUS BANK SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO ENCOMPASS KLBT AROUND 05Z.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS LESSER LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS,
HOWEVER MARINE CUMULUS WITH LOW CLOUD BASES IN THE 1500-2500
FOOT RANGE WILL MARCH ONSHORE PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN
MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SHOWERS COULD GET AN EARLY START ON MONDAY, DEVELOPING
IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR BY 13Z. INLAND
LOW STRATUS MAY TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING TO LIFT, BUT
RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT AFTERWARD WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 17Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS OR FOG AT KFLO AND KLBT
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY REDUCE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY TOWARD THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS DOMINATING THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN THE 20-60NM
WATERS OFF FROM SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO
20NM, AND 4-6 FT FROM 20-60NM, WITH SSE 7 SEC SWELL THE PRIMARY
COMPONENT AND A 1-3 FT ENE SWELL MIXED IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THU AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE. A FAIRLY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD THEN MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI BRINGING MORE EASTERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE
LEVELS THOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY UP TO 4-6 FT,
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RJB/VAO
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