190
FXUS62 KILM 250628
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES HIGH AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL
AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER AFTER SUNRISE AS ONSHORE FLOW
INTENSIFIES AND SURFACE HEATING PROVIDES A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT. THIS
AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INLAND WHERE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AT THE SURFACE INITIATES
CONVECTION. OUTFLOWS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
A WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP BEACHES AND COASTAL AREAS CLEAR OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A PATTERN ALOFT THAT WILL PROMOTE
UPWARD MOTION. THE KEY TO WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WILL BE SURFACE BASED FORCING. BE IT FROM
LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE OR A WEAK SEA BREEZE. WITH THE SETUP BEING
TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE MORE STORMS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE MORE ACTION ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDS 2" FOR A BULK OF THE MON-WED
TIME PERIOD AND AT TIMES IS AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED AT
CHS/MHX. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME PWAT, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
(13K FT+) AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS CREATES A SETUP PERFECT FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MULTIDAY RAINFALL
TOTALS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM OR TRAINING STORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH THEN STALLING IN THE REGION, BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS YET.
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENING WITH THE LAST
FRONT, WHICH ENDED UP STALLED TO THE NORTH. SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THE FRONT STALLS BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING A
MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW
HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO 3-4 FT SSE SWELL LEADING TO STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, WITH HOLIDAY WEEKEND CROWDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED
RESCUES BY LIFEGUARDS. MODERATE RIP RISK IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
FOR BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR, AND THIS WILL BE EVALUATED FURTHER
LATER TODAY.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. MENTIONED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY FOR
MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THEIR
DEVELOPMENT. VIS LIKELY WON'T DROP BELOW MVFR IF TERMINALS ARE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED. SHOWERS WILL DISRUPT THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR
PERIODIC RELIEF OF LIFR CIGS, MAINLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW FOR MVFR TO BE THE
LOWEST EXPECTED CATEGORY.
NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH A WEAKER SEA BREEZE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AT THE
SURFACE PROMOTES SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUTFLOWS WILL PROGRESS INTO
BETTER COVERAGE. AFTERNOON STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. STRATUS REMAINS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE UNDERGOES LITTLE TO NO MODIFICATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST... LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES AT OUR INLAND TERMINALS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY REDUCE IN COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY TOWARD THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 3-4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, AND 4-6 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PRIMARY SWELL OUT
OF THE SSE AT 7 SECONDS IN ADDITION TO A 1-3 FEET ENE SWELL
MIXED IN. WITH THE GULF STREAM WELL INTO THE MARINE ZONES,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. SOME INDICATIONS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI, BUT THE LAST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FAILED TO REACH THE AREA
AND IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THIS ONE WILL TOO. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND IS SHOWN DEVELOPING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING FRI, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND SEEMS MORE LIKELY RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KT
WITH AFTERNOON ENHANCEMENT WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT NEAR 60 NM WHERE WINDS ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THU IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION. SEAS 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT OUT NEAR
60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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