510
FXUS62 KILM 251844
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
244 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
2) DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO 3-4 FT SSE SWELL LEADING TO STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, WITH HOLIDAY CROWDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED
RESCUES BY LIFEGUARDS. MODERATE RIP RISK IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. RIP RISK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MODERATE
FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED RIP RISK IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE SSE SWELL REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT STRONG RIPS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR EAST- AND SOUTHEAST-FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
NOT MUCH PATTERN CHANGE TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, SFC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS,
AND WEAK UPR-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN IT WILL RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGHER POPS INLAND DURING THE
DAY, WHILE HIGHER OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) EXCEEDS 2" FOR A BULK OF THE MON-WED
TIME PERIOD AND AT TIMES IS AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED AT
CHS/MHX THOSE DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME PWAT, DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER (13K FT+) AND SLOW STORM MOTION CREATES A SETUP
PERFECT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MULTI-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM OR TRAINING
STORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH BY THURSDAY,
HOWEVER A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, BUT REGARDLESS
IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ELEVATED POPS ON THURSDAY.
BETTER MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, AWAY FROM THE COAST, THROUGH SUNSET.
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES
ACROSS, THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS BY TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH AND IF THEY WILL IMPACT I-95
TERMINALS (FLO AND LBT). CURRENT FORECAST HAS MVFR CIGS AROUND
1500 FT INLAND FROM 8Z TO 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MORNING SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES AT OUR INLAND TERMINALS.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
REDUCE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT
PREFERENTIALLY TOWARD THE COASTAL AIRPORTS KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
FEATURE, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS DOMINATING THE LOCAL
WATERS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS IN THE 20- 60NM WATERS OFF FROM SURF CITY TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO
20NM, AND 4-6 FT FROM 20-60NM, WITH SSE 7 SEC SWELL THE PRIMARY
COMPONENT AND A WEAKENING 1-2 FT ENE SWELL MIXED IN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
OFFSHORE, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR IF
AT ALL THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT REGARDLESS WINDS
SHOULD STAY NO HIGHER THAN 10-20 KT, WITH SEAS BELOW CRITERIA
AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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