945
FXUS62 KILM 252339
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
2) DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO 3-4 FT SSE SWELL LEADING TO STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, WITH HOLIDAY CROWDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED
RESCUES BY LIFEGUARDS. MODERATE RIP RISK IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. RIP RISK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MODERATE
FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED RIP RISK IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE SSE SWELL REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT STRONG RIPS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR EAST- AND SOUTHEAST-FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
NOT MUCH PATTERN CHANGE TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, SFC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS,
AND WEAK UPR-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN IT WILL RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGHER POPS INLAND DURING THE
DAY, WHILE HIGHER OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) EXCEEDS 2" FOR A BULK OF THE MON-WED
TIME PERIOD AND AT TIMES IS AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED AT
CHS/MHX THOSE DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME PWAT, DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER (13K FT+) AND SLOW STORM MOTION CREATES A SETUP
PERFECT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MULTI-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM OR TRAINING
STORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH BY THURSDAY,
HOWEVER A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, BUT REGARDLESS
IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ELEVATED POPS ON THURSDAY.
BETTER MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WHAT APPEARS TO BE TODAY'S FINAL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
SWEEPING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING (25/2330Z) AND HAS A MODERATE POTENTIAL
TO BRING IMPACTS TO KFLO THROUGH 26/0200Z. BROKEN LOW STRATUS
WITH BASES AS LOW AS 500-700 FEET AGL MAY APPEAR TEMPORARILY
BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, THEN THERE IS A MODERATE
POTENTIAL IFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
12-14Z TUESDAY.
AT KLBT, CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LESSER DIRECT IMPACTS, BUT
SPOTTY LOW STRATUS HAS A LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL TO BRING IFR
CEILINGS THERE THROUGH 0400Z, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
MORNING LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO AN 2500-3500 FT AGL
CUMULUS CLOUD DECK INLAND WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 16Z
TUESDAY WITH A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KFLO AND KLBT,
AND LOW POTENTIAL AT KILM.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT KFLO AND KLBT.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP EACH
DAY THIS WEEK: THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY TOWARD THE COASTAL AIRPORTS KILM,
KCRE, AND KMYR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
FEATURE, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS DOMINATING THE LOCAL
WATERS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS IN THE 20- 60NM WATERS OFF FROM SURF CITY TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO
20NM, AND 4-6 FT FROM 20-60NM, WITH SSE 7 SEC SWELL THE PRIMARY
COMPONENT AND A WEAKENING 1-2 FT ENE SWELL MIXED IN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
OFFSHORE, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR IF
AT ALL THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT REGARDLESS WINDS
SHOULD STAY NO HIGHER THAN 10-20 KT, WITH SEAS BELOW CRITERIA
AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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