215
FXUS62 KILM 260640
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
240 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING.
NOT MUCH PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, HEATING, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
IT WILL RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INLAND DURING THE
DAY, WHILE HIGHER OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) EXCEEDS 2" FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND WED
AND AT TIMES IS AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED AT CHS/MHX
FOR THOSE DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME PWAT, DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER (13K FT+) AND SLOW STORM MOTION CREATES A SETUP
PERFECT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MULTI-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM OR TRAINING
STORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH BY THURSDAY,
HOWEVER A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, BUT
REGARDLESS IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THU. BETTER MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN
AROUND FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRY MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE INLAND TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
APPROACHING MINIMUMS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ANY FOG HAS BEEN SHALLOW
AND SHOULD MIX PERIODICALLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL PRESERVE MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND.
NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 16Z. KILM WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE SURFACE WIND TODAY. KCRE/KMYR MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT KFLO AND KLBT. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK: THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY
TOWARD THE COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FEET OUT TO 20 NMI,
AND 4-6 FEET FROM 20-60 NMI. SSE 7 SECOND SWELL REMAINS THE
PRIMARY COMPONENT WITH A DIMINISHING 1 FT ENE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WED THROUGH THU WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TIGHTENS UP. POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED 15-20 KT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20NM. FRONT DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST OR EAST FLOW TO END THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE STALLING IS LOW.
SEAS AROUND 4 FT WED BRIEFLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
5-6 FT 20-60NM LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY,
PUSHING THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER EAST. SEAS DROP TO AROUND 4 FT
THU AFTERNOON, SETTLING IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE FOR FRI AND SAT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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