861
FXUS62 KILM 261854
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED, AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED, AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NOT MUCH PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, SFC HEATING, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, AND
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN IT WILL RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INLAND
DURING THE DAY, WHILE HIGHER OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER NW AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOODING RISK IS A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS AND STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING AT A FAIRLY GOOD PACE, THE COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2", DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER (13K FT+)
AND SOME CELLS POTENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE THE SAME AREA WILL
LEAD TO THE MARGINAL FLOOD RISK.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN LATER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR SOUTH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND WHERE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL LIE. BETTER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) FOR SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEREAFTER AS GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON WHETHER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA (DRIER) OR
STAY OFF TO THE NORTH (WETTER) SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, IN BETWEEN POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS WITH CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS. KILM, KCRE, AND
KMYR SHOULD MOSTLY BE SPARED OF THE CONVECTION HEADACHES GOING
INTO THIS EVENING. THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF KFLO AND KLBT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO HEADING TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION CALMS AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING JUST A LIGHT BREEZE OUT
OF THE SSW OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS MAY POP UP FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, THANKS TO THE
EXTRA MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM WHATEVER RAIN THAT FELL. WINDS VEER
TO THE SW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION RAMPING UP AGAIN.
EXTENDED FORECAST... THE THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
KFLO AND KLBT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST
WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONVECTION MAY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW WILL VEER
TO THE SW EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO A FRESH
BREEZE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN AT 2-4 FT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE, UP TO 4-5 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES, LOOK
FOR THE MAIN SSE SWELL AT 6-8 SECONDS, AND A SECONDARY ENE SWELL
AT 8-9 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
OFFSHORE, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR IF AT ALL THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT REGARDLESS WINDS SHOULD STAY NO
HIGHER THAN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS BELOW CRITERIA AS WELL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH, A
WEAK NE SURGE COULD LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT STARTING
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN REGARDS TO WHERE
THE FRONT ENDS UP AS WELL AS WHERE EXACTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS IS MAINLY
AFFECTING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
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