918
FXUS62 KILM 262349
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT FOR MOST BEACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOWS
FOR TONIGHT WERE TWEAKED HIGHER, WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPED BELOW
20 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED, AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED, AND MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NOT MUCH PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYING OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, SFC HEATING, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, AND
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN IT WILL RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INLAND
DURING THE DAY, WHILE HIGHER OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER NW AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOODING RISK IS A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS AND STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING AT A FAIRLY GOOD PACE, THE COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2", DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER (13K FT+)
AND SOME CELLS POTENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE THE SAME AREA WILL
LEAD TO THE MARGINAL FLOOD RISK.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN LATER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR SOUTH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND WHERE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL LIE. BETTER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) FOR SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEREAFTER AS GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON WHETHER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA (DRIER) OR
STAY OFF TO THE NORTH (WETTER) SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INLAND CONVECTION IS WRAPPING UP FOR THE DAY, BUT THERE IS STILL
A LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AT
KLBT THROUGH 03Z. SCATTERED MARINE CUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TO KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR OVERNIGHT,
BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WE
HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFFECTING THE KLBT AND KFLO AIRPORTS.
STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE 07-08Z TIMEFRAME AND MAY CONTINUE
AS LATE AS 13-14Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO DAYTIME CUMULUS.
THE HREF ENSEMBLE PAINTS A ZONE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WE'VE
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE'S A MID-RANGE PROBABILITY
THAT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS, AND
A LOW PROBABILITY INLAND. CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
16-17Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST... THE THREAT FOR LATE-NIGHT LOW STRATUS OR
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AT KFLO AND KLBT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS
WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW WILL VEER
TO THE SW EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO A FRESH
BREEZE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN AT 2-4 FT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE, UP TO 4-5 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES, LOOK
FOR THE MAIN SSE SWELL AT 6-8 SECONDS, AND A SECONDARY ENE SWELL
AT 8-9 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
OFFSHORE, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR IF AT ALL THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT REGARDLESS WINDS SHOULD STAY NO
HIGHER THAN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS BELOW CRITERIA AS WELL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH, A
WEAK NE SURGE COULD LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT STARTING
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN REGARDS TO WHERE
THE FRONT ENDS UP AS WELL AS WHERE EXACTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS IS MAINLY
AFFECTING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/IGB
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