681
FXUS62 KILM 270511
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY, DEFLATING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE WEST,
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE ADVECTED AS EFFICIENTLY AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT RAIN
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. REFS/HREF FAVOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR US-701 AFTER NOON. STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF A NEAR-COAST SEA BREEZE MAY LEAD TO A PROGRESSIVE
INTERACTION OF OUTFLOWS, EXPANDING TO SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS MAY STILL SEE
PERIODIC CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT EARLY INITIATION
FARTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIMIT HEATING
POTENTIAL. POPS HERE ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN EASTERN
COUNTERPARTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER.
FOR MUCH OF THU THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF DEEP MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. INITIALLY FORCING IS WEAK WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY UNDER FLOW ALOFT THAT IS WEAKLY DIVERGENT BORDERING
ON BEING CONVERGENT. THE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE LIMITED INTO THU AFTERNOON, LIKELY SCATTERED SEA
BREEZE ACTION, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IT IS MOVING INTO. EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE INSISTS THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG CHANCES LIMITED THIS MORNING,
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS. STILL COULD SEE
SOME SHALLOW FOG AT FLO/LBT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MVFR/IFR CIGS INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR DEVELOPS
AFTER SUNRISE AND THE MAIN IMPACT THEREAFTER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW COULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT KFLO AND KLBT. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK: THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY
TOWARD THE COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO DEGRADE TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS COULD GUST UP TO
20-25 KNOTS NEAR THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE; GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS WINDS
ALSO TURN SW. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT OUT NEAR 60 NM AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY SURGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA, LIKELY JUST
TO THE SOUTH, FRI BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH SAT. THE RESULT
WILL BE VARIABLE WINDS, BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. A SECOND FRONT, LATE IN THE WEEK, PUSHES
SOUTH, SETTING UP ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE FOR SUN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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