394
FXUS62 KILM 271027
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY, DEFLATING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE WEST,
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE ADVECTED AS EFFICIENTLY AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT RAIN
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. REFS/HREF FAVOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR US-701 AFTER NOON. STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF A NEAR-COAST SEA BREEZE MAY LEAD TO A PROGRESSIVE
INTERACTION OF OUTFLOWS, EXPANDING TO SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS MAY STILL SEE
PERIODIC CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT EARLY INITIATION
FARTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIMIT HEATING
POTENTIAL. POPS HERE ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN EASTERN
COUNTERPARTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER.
FOR MUCH OF THU THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF DEEP MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. INITIALLY FORCING IS WEAK WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY UNDER FLOW ALOFT THAT IS WEAKLY DIVERGENT BORDERING
ON BEING CONVERGENT. THE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE LIMITED INTO THU AFTERNOON, LIKELY SCATTERED SEA
BREEZE ACTION, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IT IS MOVING INTO. EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE INSISTS THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT INLAND TERMINALS
MAY SEE SOME STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD BE
PROLONGED, ENDING BY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... THE THREAT FOR LATE-NIGHT LOW STRATUS OR
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AT KFLO AND KLBT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS
WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO DEGRADE TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS COULD GUST UP TO
20-25 KNOTS NEAR THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE; GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS WINDS
ALSO TURN SW. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT OUT NEAR 60 NM AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY SURGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA, LIKELY JUST
TO THE SOUTH, FRI BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH SAT. THE RESULT
WILL BE VARIABLE WINDS, BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. A SECOND FRONT, LATE IN THE WEEK, PUSHES
SOUTH, SETTING UP ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE FOR SUN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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