773
FXUS62 KILM 271808
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTN AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR MUCH OF THU THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF DEEP MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. INITIALLY FORCING IS WEAK WITH
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY UNDER FLOW ALOFT THAT IS WEAKLY DIVERGENT BORDERING
ON BEING CONVERGENT. THE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE LIMITED INTO THU AFTERNOON, LIKELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE
ACTION, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IT IS MOVING INTO. EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE INSISTS THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION HAS JUST
STARTED TO FIRE UP OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST SC AND THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. THREW IN TEMPO GROUPS AT
KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR TO REPRESENT TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
IN AND OUT PRIOR TO 00Z THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LESS
OVER KFLO AND KLBT, SO PROB30 GROUPS FELT A BIT MORE APPROPRIATE
THERE. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET, LEADING TO A LULL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST
BY THE TIME SUNRISE COMES AROUND THURSDAY MORNING, AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. SOME LOW CEILINGS MAY
TRY TO FORM INLAND, ESPECIALLY OVER KFLO AND KLBT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
VFR CEILINGS START TO BUILD AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD,
BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST... THE THREAT FOR LATE-NIGHT LOW STRATUS OR
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AT KFLO AND KLBT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL ON FRIDAY, THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TOWARDS THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY CREATING MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, WHICH MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO ESCALATE
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO CAPE FEAR, NC OUT 20 NM. HOWEVER,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM FROM SURF CITY. THIS GRADIENT
FINALLY RELAXES LATE THURSDAY MORNING, AND WINDS SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE WSW. SEAS AT 2-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM,
WHICH MAY BUMP UP TO 3-5 FT DURING THE GRADIENT INCREASE
TONIGHT. SEAS AT 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM, WITH
A BUMP UP TO 4-6 FT DURING THE GRADIENT INCREASE. OUTSIDE OF
WIND WAVES, LOOK FOR A PRIMARY SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-9
SECONDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY SURGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA FRI, LIKELY
JUST TO THE SOUTH, BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH SAT. THE RESULT
WILL BE VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. A SECOND FRONT PUSHES SOUTH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN, SETTING UP ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE FOR SUN WITH WINDS
UP TO 15-20 KT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
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