694
FXUS62 KILM 272331
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND WOFS
ENSEMBLES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 10-11 PM FOR THE LAST SHOWERS TO EXIT THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE WHERE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS IN
PLACE ABOVE THE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTN AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR MUCH OF THU THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF DEEP MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. INITIALLY FORCING IS WEAK WITH
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY UNDER FLOW ALOFT THAT IS WEAKLY DIVERGENT BORDERING
ON BEING CONVERGENT. THE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE LIMITED INTO THU AFTERNOON, LIKELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE
ACTION, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IT IS MOVING INTO. EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE INSISTS THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMYR AND KCRE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT UP UNTIL 09-11Z WHEN THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AFFECTING ALL THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS.
ONCE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS BURN THROUGH, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT
TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT THROUGH KLBT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
COLLISION OF THE FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS IS AT KILM, WITH
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KCRE AND KMYR. KFLO HAS A
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE FRONT ARRIVES
THERE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR LATE-NIGHT LOW STRATUS OR
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AT KFLO AND KLBT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY, THE ARRIVAL
OF A SECOND COLD FRONT COULD BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, WHICH MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO ESCALATE
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO CAPE FEAR, NC OUT 20 NM. HOWEVER,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM FROM SURF CITY. THIS GRADIENT
FINALLY RELAXES LATE THURSDAY MORNING, AND WINDS SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE WSW. SEAS AT 2-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM,
WHICH MAY BUMP UP TO 3-5 FT DURING THE GRADIENT INCREASE
TONIGHT. SEAS AT 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM, WITH
A BUMP UP TO 4-6 FT DURING THE GRADIENT INCREASE. OUTSIDE OF
WIND WAVES, LOOK FOR A PRIMARY SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-9
SECONDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY SURGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA FRI, LIKELY
JUST TO THE SOUTH, BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH SAT. THE RESULT
WILL BE VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. A SECOND FRONT PUSHES SOUTH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN, SETTING UP ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE FOR SUN WITH WINDS
UP TO 15-20 KT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page