111
FXUS62 KILM 280545
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)LIMITED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY DESPITE THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIMITED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY
DESPITE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY,
DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING A BIT FROM NEAR RECORD LEVELS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FORCING TODAY IS WEAK WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY UNDER FLOW
ALOFT THAT IS BARELY DIVERGENT. THE LACKLUSTER ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
STORM COVERAGE LIMITED. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW WEAK STORMS FIRE ON THE
SEA BREEZE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS PUSHING SOUTH.
FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND WILL HAVE A
PINNED SEA BREEZE TO INTERACT WITH. THE FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
KICK OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
IT IS MOVING INTO. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MAY END UP STARTING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND THE FRONT
FIRST MEET BEFORE EXPANDING WEST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3" UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS
AND LIMITED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL HELP
KEEP FLOODING POTENTIAL VERY LOW. FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING, ENDING ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY ALL SITES REPORTING VFR WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
DEPICT SOMEWHAT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMPARED TO INLAND
SITES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TOO STRONG FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE WINDS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SUB 3K FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z AND LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE POST
SUNRISE WARMING HELPS MIX THE LOW CLOUD OUT. INLAND AREAS LOOK TO
STAY VFR.
WIDESPREAD VFR IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. FRONT IS MOVING INTO A JUICY AIR MASS WITH PLENTY OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SEA BREEZE WILL BE PRESENT, ALBEIT PINNED
TO THE COAST AND THIS COULD BE WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY GET
GOING. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EXPAND, BUT
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN A SHOWER OR STORM WILL REACH A GIVEN
TERMINAL, HENCE THE USE OF PROB30 GROUPS.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA 00Z-04Z LEAVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR AT TIMES FROM SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PINCHED
GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE, BUT LATER
TODAY THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND SPEEDS DECREASE.
WESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES. WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT SURGE STRENGTH AND DURATION ARE LIMITED AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS 3-5 FT DROP
TO 3-4 FT WITH THE REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, 4 FT SEAS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT THORUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SIX FOOT WAVES WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM
ZONES THOUGH WINDS MAY TAKE A BRIEF RUN AT SCA WIND GUSTS SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE COAST ENOUGH FOR A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO RETURN.
THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DISRUPT THE SE FLOW THAT HAD BEEN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO THE PERIOD KEEPING SEAS IN THE SHORTER PERIOD
SPECTRUM. ANOTHER FRONT AND HIGH BUILDING FROM THE NORTH COULD BRING
A RETURN OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND KEEP WAVE PERIODS IN THE WIND
WAVE REALM TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...III/MBB
DISCUSSION...III/MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/MBB
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