973
FXUS62 KILM 291028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PRESENT IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL
BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. AS SUCH THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. EVEN THOUGH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR
POSSIBLE THE OVERALL SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
ITS SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL DROUGHT
RELIEF FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. FIRST OFF, AREA-WIDE QPF PROSPECTS
APPEAR INADEQUATE. SECONDLY, THE PRECIP LIKELY ARRIVES WITH A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE INITIAL RAIN BATCH
FALLS ON DRY GROUND, LARGELY LOST TO RUNOFF.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH MOVING EAST AND THE SEA BREEZE RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING TO CREEP NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY AT SC SITES, AFTER
06Z, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS SHOWERS ALONG A
FRONT MOVE NORTH. MVFR/IFR AT TIMES FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WEAK NORTHEAST SURGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT, BUT DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE 1 OR 2 HOURS
BEFORE SPEEDS DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
MIGRATES EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERING TO EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST AND FINALLY SOUTH THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
AROUND 3 FT OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOLID 4 FT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST SURGE. DOMINANT WAVE WILL BE A SOUTHEAST SWELL, BUT A
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A RE-ENFORCING PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO SCA SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PART OF THE AREA (CURRENT THINKING
IS COASTAL NC AND GTOWN, WITH A GAP IN BETWEEN). AND THIS WILL ONLY
BE REGARDING 6 FT SEAS AS WINDS DON'T QUITE GET TO CRITERIA. WINDS
ARE ALSO PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE 60S NM ZONES SO NO GALES
EXPECTED PAST 20NM. THE WIND SURGE IS IN RESPONSE TO NOT ONLY THE
LARGE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BUT ALSO A FEW AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN AREAS OF BAROCLINICITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE COAST. AN ABATING TREND IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS IS SLATED FOR
MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WINDS UP WELL OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO COMMENCE. THIS NEW FETCH SHOULD WORK TO
DIMINISH ANY WEEKEND SWELL (MOST OF WHICH WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST ZONES) FOR SOME DOCILE MARINE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS
A HEALTHY TROUGH GETS CARVED INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN, THIS TIME POSSIBLY AREA-WIDE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/MBB
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