756
FXUS62 KILM 291846
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST,
THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN
THE FORECAST, THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION
OF THE DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS SUCH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. EVEN THOUGH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. FIRST OFF, AREA-
WIDE QPF PROSPECTS APPEAR INADEQUATE. SECONDLY, THE PRECIP
LIKELY ARRIVES WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHOSE INITIAL RAIN BATCH FALLS ON DRY GROUND, LARGELY LOST TO
RUNOFF.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT, CLOUD COVER INCREASING. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE PUSHED SOUTH ONCE MORE. SUNDAY IS LOOKING
RESTRICTION FREE WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE BEFORE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL COME UP FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND THEN W DURING
THE DAY. RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FORCE THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A NE SURGE IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOR A COMBO OF
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO ~25 AND SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES. GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW GALE FORCE
SO NO GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE 20-60 NM ZONES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST
10-20 KT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD DEFINITELY SEE AN
UPTICK IN WINDS DURING PART OF THAT TWO-DAY PERIOD AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THEN, POTENTIALLY PROMPTING ANOTHER MARGINAL SCA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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