207
FXUS62 KILM 292334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST,
THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN
THE FORECAST, THE OVER-ARCHING IMPACT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION
OF THE DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS SUCH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. EVEN THOUGH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. FIRST OFF, AREA-
WIDE QPF PROSPECTS APPEAR INADEQUATE. SECONDLY, THE PRECIP
LIKELY ARRIVES WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHOSE INITIAL RAIN BATCH FALLS ON DRY GROUND, LARGELY LOST TO
RUNOFF.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT NORTH TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING AFTER
06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KLBT WHERE WE HAVE A
BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW RISK FOR MVFR/IFR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY IS LOOKING RESTRICTION-FREE WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE BEFORE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL COME UP FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND THEN W DURING
THE DAY. RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FORCE THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A NE SURGE IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOR A COMBO OF
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT AND SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES. GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW GALE FORCE
SO NO GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE 20-60 NM ZONES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST
10-20 KT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD DEFINITELY SEE AN
UPTICK IN WINDS DURING PART OF THAT TWO-DAY PERIOD AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THEN, POTENTIALLY PROMPTING ANOTHER MARGINAL SCA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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