084
FXUS62 KILM 031853
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST UPDATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH LARGE
TEMPERATURE RANGES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY.
- 2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY.
COOL CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
WILL SLIDE OVER INTO APPALACHIA TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS TO GO CALM. THIS CREATES A NEARLY PERFECT
SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY TALK
ABOUT IN MARCH OR OCTOBER. LAST NIGHT, A RAWS STATION IN BACK
ISLAND, NC RECORDED A LOW OF 42 DEGREES. TONIGHT LOOKS EVEN BETTER,
AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THAT STATION OR SOME OTHERS IN PARTS
OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAPPY
JUNE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, GRADUALLY SETTING UP SOME ONSHORE FLOW. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS AT THAT POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING A BIT MORE EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THURSDAY
BECOME THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. LOWS RETURN TO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN, HEAT, AND INSTABILITY FOR THE SEABREEZE TO BRING IN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THAT IDEA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN
GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS DUE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING BY SUNSET. WINDS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SHOULD GO CALM BY 03-06Z TONIGHT UNDER SKC. A
LIGHT NNE BREEZE WILL START TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD, PULLING MORE ENE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION BEGINS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ASIDE FROM A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM. THIS ADVISORY WILL THEN EXPIRE AT 2 AM
EDT TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET, SC OUT 20 NM. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST HANGING ON
THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON, GRADIENT WINDS WILL
IMPROVE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, UP TO
4-6 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS A BIT MORE VARIABLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEARLY OVERHEAD
THE WATERS. FROM THERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE SETS UP OUT OF THE
S TO SSW OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 2-
4 FT ACROSS ALL ZONES OUT TO 60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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