294
FXUS62 KILM 051015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED BUT OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DESCRIPTION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE STARTING LATER TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES AREN'T IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER MONDAY WE CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY, SEA BREEZE AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COME A BIT MORE INTO PLAY. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR SHOULD
TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES THRU MID WEEK JUST DUE TO THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AT THE VERY LEAST.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF A LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STARTING AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED MON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE.
MARINE
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE STARTING LATER TODAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY JUST SOME
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE WIND ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COAST. A FAIRLY
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MON/MON NIGHT WILL NOT INCREASE
WINDS/SEAS TOO MUCH AND NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/21
MARINE...RJB
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