632
FXUS62 KILM 052310
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
710 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE DROUGHT CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE DROUGHT CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY CONTINUES TO
BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC REGARDING ITS
ABILITY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL. AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY OR
EVEN WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MAKING A COMEBACK THIS
LOOKS RATHER DUBIOUS. ALSO, HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAK ON MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE VALUES, WELL BELOW ANY
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ~5 KTS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ~10 KTS
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ANOTHER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE
GUSTS TO ~20 KTS WITH SOME ALTO CU POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF A LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN. A LOW
TO MODERATE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUE.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EASTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASINGLY
BECOME LESS DOMINANT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS SATURDAY. SW WINDS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL BEING DISRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
N ON MONDAY. TOUGH TO SAY WHAT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BRING AS
IT WILL HINGE ON THE UNCERTAIN POSITION AT WHICH THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN LATER TUESDAY THOUGH AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MBB
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