824
FXUS62 KILM 071018
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL EAST-
FACING BEACHES. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR EAST-FACING BEACHES. AVIATION SECTION
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO
APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DESCRIPTION...LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND.
LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING SHOULD KEEP IT GENERALLY RAIN- FREE
THRU TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WEST OF I-95 NEAR THE TROUGH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SE NC AS PER STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MON SHOULD BRING
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF NC. SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES PEAKING UP NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR MOST INLAND LOCALES.
EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY TUE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE RETURNING WED THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD GET BACK CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
COAST STARTING THU. MOSTLY EXPECTING LOW RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY TICK UP A BIT LATE WEEK DEPENDING
ON WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE
STORM AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS SEEMS PRETTY LOW THRU THE PERIOD, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
RELIEF.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT, EXCEPT GUSTING TO NEAR 20-25 KT
AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THU. LOW TO
MODERATE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM MVFR/IFR CIGS MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AGAIN TUE/WED NIGHTS (MAINLY
INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO). RESTRICTIONS FROM SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
MARINE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO MON BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER MON AND THEN PROCEEDS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND REMAINING CENTERED
OFFSHORE THRU MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE GUSTING NEAR 25 KT
THIS AFTN/EVE, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE
THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/21
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/21
MARINE...RJB
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