446
FXUS62 KILM 071927
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN FORECAST THINKING THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT AND REMAIN MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT AND
REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN-FREE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN ON MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 40 POPS AND RAINFALL WILL BE TOO SPOTTY
FROM AN AREAL COVERAGE PERSPECTIVE TO BRING US ANY DROUGHT
RELIEF. ANOTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DAY ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD CONTAINING A FEW VORTICITY MAXES. FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS CONGEAL NEARBY AND A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS. AFTERNOONS WILL WARM TO THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY
FROM THE WATER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SAVE FOR PERHAPS A SMALL PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NO
FOG. SW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THU. LOW TO
MODERATE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM MVFR/IFR CIGS MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AGAIN TUE/WED NIGHTS (MAINLY
INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO). RESTRICTIONS FROM SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO DURING THE
AFTN/EVE.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE AREA REMAINS IN A SWRLY PREFRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FLOW WILL
START TO VEER AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD. THIS
TREND REVERSES WEAKLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NE SURGE THAT WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. OUR EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY
WILL ABATE THROUGH TUESDAY BUT POSSIBLY PERSIST IN A WEAKENED
STATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR SW FLOW IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-3 FT SEAS, BOTH OF WHICH ARE FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR JUNE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page