027
FXUS62 KILM 080633
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
233 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN
INCREASINGLY HOT WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN INCREASINGLY
HOT WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY, STALLING IN THE REGION. FRONT IS MOVING INTO AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, BUT HAS NO SUPPORT ALOFT. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE WEAK 5H RIDGE HOLDS ON ACROSS NORTHEAST SC. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NC, WHICH IS WHERE THE CAMS DEPICT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. FRONT SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TUE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
5H RIDGE ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE. MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, BUT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER, LIMITING INSTABILITY. STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TUE AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHEAST SC FAVORED.
RIDGING ALOFT CONSOLIDATES WED, EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES AWAY
FROM THE COAST. LACK OF DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S WILL KEEP THE
HEAT INDEX SHY OF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DESPITE HIGHS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN THE HEAT AND THE PRESENCE OF A SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY, ALTHOUGH
THE 5H RIDGE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS COULD BRING
SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR, MAINLY FOR KLBT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHEAST FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ANY STORMS WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH VFR RETURNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUE/WED NIGHTS
(MAINLY AT KLBT/KFLO). RESTRICTIONS FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY INLAND. OTHERWISE VFR.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY IS
REPLACED BY NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THIS EVENING. MODEST NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND
THE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES, BUT BRIEF INCREASE TO 20
KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY FOR NC WATERS. MORE TYPICAL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE WATERS WED AS THE POST FRONT
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY
THU/FRI. SPEEDS 15-20 KT SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN INLAND WARMING LATE
IN THE WEEK. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 3 FT TUE, A
RESULT OF THE SURGE, BEFORE 2-3 FT RETURN FOR WED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW THU/FRI HELPS BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 WITH ISOLATED 4
FT BEYOND 20NM EACH AFTERNOON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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