590
FXUS62 KILM 082344
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED THUNDER THREAT TO JUST A SHOWER THREAT THRU DUSK. AFTER
SUNSET, TOOK OUT ANY LEFTOVER POP THREAT.
00Z TAFS ISSUED FOLLOWED BY AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
HIGHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
A FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CURRENTLY AND 12Z SYNOPTIC AND HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WEST OF WILMINGTON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER, BUT A LAYER OF
WARM AIR BETWEEN 12K-16KFT MAY SLOW DOWN UPDRAFTS LEAVING FEWER
TO MAKE IT UP INTO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
ASSUMING SUSTAINED CONVECTION DEVELOPS, THERE'S A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
AIR UP ABOVE 12KFT THAT WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO DOWNDRAFTS,
CONDITIONALLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS. THE HIGH RATIO OF CALCULATED
DCAPE TO CAPE HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WE'RE LIKELY NOT TALKING
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT SOME 40 MPH GUSTS WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEST OF WILMINGTON AND PERHAPS OVER
A SMALL PORTION OF THE SC PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF FLORENCE. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9-10 PM AS ACTIVITY MOVES
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND/OR DISSIPATES ENTIRELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 850 MB HIGH SHOULD SIT JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OUT TOWARD BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CREATE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY YIELDING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES WE'VE SEEN YET THIS YEAR.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
+20C FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS +21C. THIS IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND IS CLOSE TO DAILY
RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR USING THE KMHX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. WE'VE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
ANOTHER DEGREE LATE THIS WEEK WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST
OF INTERIOR EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY. THERE'S A NUMBER OF NBM COMPONENT MEMBERS SHOWING
100 DEGREE HEAT POSSIBLE AT LUMBERTON ON FRIDAY.
THIS KIND OF HEAT IN LUMBERTON WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON: JUNE 1 AND 2, 2022 BOTH SAW 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES RECORDED AT THE LUMBERTON AIRPORT.
WITH DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST, HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES
AT LATE THIS WEEK. WE'VE ALREADY GOT SOME 105+ DEGREE HEAT
INDEX PIXELS SHOWING UP FROM BURGAW TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO TABOR
CITY THAT COULD REQUIRE OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NC-SC BORDER OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC TONIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. LACK OF
THE DAYS HEATING TONIGHT AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PUT AN END TO
THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION BY OR JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE 700 TO 1500 FT LEVEL REMAINS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU ROUGHLY 14Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS. CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP AGAIN TUE, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LYING ACROSS FLO TERMINAL. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IT WITH A PROB30
GROUP. WINDS GENERALLY ENE-ESE 8 TO 12 KT THIS EVENING WITH FEW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT BY THRU THE PREDAWN HRS. LOOK
FOR CONTINUED WINDS BECOMING ESE-SSE 5 TO 10 KT TUE AFTN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AT KLBT AND KFLO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING
A SHIFT TO EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE WON'T BE AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER IN THE
CAPE FEAR AREA AND NORTHWARD WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO A SOLID 15
KNOTS FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND
3 FEET NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TONIGHT, AND AROUND 4 FT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN A VERY
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT TO
THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COULD INCREASE SPEEDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUILDING SEAS TO 3 FEET WITHIN
20 MILES OF SHORE, AND TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE 20-60 MILE OFFSHORE
ZONES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA
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