100
FXUS62 KILM 161054
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY.
2) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY.
DESCRIPTION...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WED AT WHICH TIME ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MORE WEST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A SHORT BREAK IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY TODAY BEFORE MORE SUMMERLIKE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RETURN AGAIN WED. THU SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST
OVERALL WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (105 DEGREES) FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER SE
NC AND COASTAL SC. BY FRIDAY, SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICES DOWN A BIT. THUS, THE RISK
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
UP FROM THE GULF COAST. AS OF NOW, COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN
RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DESCRIPTION...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TIDE
LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEADING TO SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR ANOTHER EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER AND AT THE BEACHES.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z WED.
HAVE USED SHORT TERM MVFR PROB30 GROUPS ACROSS CRE/MYR/FLO LATER
THIS MORNING AND/OR AFTN. OTHERWISE, RESERVED PROB30 GROUPS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED DUE TO MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE A THUNDER THREAT
LATE TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND AS A
RESULT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS 12Z TAF ISSUANCE OTHER THAN
MENTIONING HERE. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING ACROSS THE BI-
STATE REGION TODAY, WINDS WILL DIFFER BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU TONIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY BECOME SW 5 TO 10 KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED WILL BECOME
PERIODIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY VFR THU. AN APPROACHING
STRONGER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STARTING LATE THU
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY WED BEFORE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS A FOOTHOLD. LIGHTER, MORE
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL INCREASE TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A SPIKE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE WEEK SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL GALES THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI, MAINLY
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ
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