408
FXUS62 KILM 161809
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
2) SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
3) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THRU
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.
DESCRIPTION... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THU WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105
DEGREES) FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER SE NC EAST OF I-95
AND COASTAL SC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DESCRIPTION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
STORMS LATE THU THRU FRI. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS
BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1) ALSO MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THRU WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DESCRIPTION...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT POSITIVE
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST, INCLUDING THE
LOWER REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, MAINLY
ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TUE THRU 18Z WED: OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
ABOUT 06Z BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS INCREASES DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE THUNDER THREAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
FOR NOW. WE MAINTAINED NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW BUT IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED, MAINLY AT KLBT/KFLO.
18Z WED THRU SUN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER WED WITH MOSTLY
VFR WED NIGHT THRU THU. AN APPROACHING STRONGER COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO MORE PLENTIFUL
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN INLAND COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER STARTING TONIGHT. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THRU WED NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
GALES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ108-110.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB
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