924
FXUS62 KILM 170716
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE ENDED. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
2) SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
3) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE TRACK UP FROM THE GULF ON
THURSDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUSH H5 HEIGHTS UP CLOSE TO 590 DEM AND 850
TEMPS UP AS HIGH AS 20C. THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE UP FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER SE NC EAST OF I-95 AND COASTAL SC. AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA, THE CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO
THE DAYTIME HEATING, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SURPASSING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY
AFTN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DECENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP FROM THE GULF COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALL LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
STORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE 1) ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF
THE POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST, INCLUDING
THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE,
MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DESPITE CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS, EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE THUNDER THREAT REMAINS
TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW. HAVE MAINTAINED NO WORSE THAN MVFR
CIGS FOR NOW BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TODAY, MAINLY
AT KLBT/KFLO. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. AN
APPROACHING STRONGER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO MORE PLENTIFUL
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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