082
FXUS62 KILM 171327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION FOR THE
SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS FLO AREA. MODELS SUCH AS HRRR AND
CONSSHORT HAVE THEM HOLDING TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
2) SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE TRACK UP FROM THE GULF ON
THURSDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUSH H5 HEIGHTS UP CLOSE TO 590 DAM AND 850
TEMPS UP AS HIGH AS 20C. THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE UP FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER SE NC EAST OF I-95 AND COASTAL SC. AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA, THE CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO
THE DAYTIME HEATING, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SURPASSING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY
AFTN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DECENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP FROM THE GULF COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALL LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
STORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE 1) ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF
THE POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU GENERALLY 16Z, MAINLY FROM LOWERED
CEILINGS WITHIN THE LIGHT PATCHY/INTERMITTENT PCPN. THE THUNDER
THREAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENTS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL COME TO AN END
BY 17Z-ISH. WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON THE LATEST. GENERALLY WILL OBSERVE CIRRUS DECKS
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY WSW 5 TO 9 KT WITHIN THE PCPN. ONCE
SKIES IMPROVE, WINDS WILL BECOME SW 10-15 KT G20 KT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY STAY AROUND 10 KT THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT
THRU EARLY SAT DUE TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED
LATER SAT THRU SUN.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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