480
FXUS62 KILM 171858
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR MARINE ZONES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR LOWER CAPE FEAR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)THURSDAY MAY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES AND
POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND
INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
- 2) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATER LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THURSDAY MAY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX
VALUES AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HOT WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO DIM SUN AND HAMPER INSOLATION. ADDITIONALLY THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED FURTHER EAST THAN OUR LAST HEATWAVE. THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS ALWAYS TROPICAL REMNANTS CAN POSE A THREAT FOR WIND
GUSTS OR EVEN BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES BUT GIVE THE SIZE AND ASYMMETRY
OF THE SYSTEM CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING THE THREAT LEVEL FOR
EITHER, THOUGH IT SEEMS QUITE LOW AND MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LASTLY AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER SPS WAS DEBATED BUT WINDS APPEAR
MARGINAL AND THE RH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS HAMPERING THE HEAT) THAT WE'VE ALSO HELD OFF
ON ANY FIRE-RELATED HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATER LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT MOST. AREAS NEAR FLO
SAW A BIT MORE RAIN THAN ANTICIPATED SO MVFR VSBY COULD
MATERIALIZE THOUGH NO GUIDANCE SEEMS SUPPORTIVE. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE IN BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTINESS AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED FORECAST...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THU. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT DUE TO MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED LATER SAT THRU SUN.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW IN THE NEAR TERM, GETTING BOLSTERED LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY A
VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. WITHIN THIS
PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME HARD-TO-TIME
FLUCTUATIONS WHERE PART OR ALL OF THE AREA COULD FALL SUB-ADVISORY
WITH WINDS SO THE START AND END TIMES OF THE HEADLINE MAY NEED SOME
MINOR FINESSING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS A COLD FROPA AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N THAT WILL BE QUITE BRIEF BEFORE VEERING BEGINS. SWELL
ENERGY THROUGH MOST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 6-7 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page