720
FXUS62 KILM 172327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
726 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)THURSDAY MAY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES AND
POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND
INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
- 2) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATER LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THURSDAY MAY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX
VALUES AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HOT WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO DIM SUN AND HAMPER INSOLATION. ADDITIONALLY THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED FURTHER EAST THAN OUR LAST HEATWAVE. THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS ALWAYS TROPICAL REMNANTS CAN POSE A THREAT FOR WIND
GUSTS OR EVEN BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES BUT GIVE THE SIZE AND ASYMMETRY
OF THE SYSTEM CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING THE THREAT LEVEL FOR
EITHER, THOUGH IT SEEMS QUITE LOW AND MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LASTLY AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER SPS WAS DEBATED BUT WINDS APPEAR
MARGINAL AND THE RH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS HAMPERING THE HEAT) THAT WE'VE ALSO HELD OFF
ON ANY FIRE-RELATED HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BIG STORY THIS VALID TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KT
PRESENTLY TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 BY ABOUT MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ON THE PLUS SIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR UNTIL THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFT ABOUT 21Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT DUE TO MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED LATER SAT THRU MON.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW IN THE NEAR TERM, GETTING BOLSTERED LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY A
VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. WITHIN THIS
PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME HARD-TO-TIME
FLUCTUATIONS WHERE PART OR ALL OF THE AREA COULD FALL SUB-ADVISORY
WITH WINDS SO THE START AND END TIMES OF THE HEADLINE MAY NEED SOME
MINOR FINESSING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS A COLD FROPA AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N THAT WILL BE QUITE BRIEF BEFORE VEERING BEGINS. SWELL
ENERGY THROUGH MOST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 6-7 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MBB
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