264
FXUS62 KILM 181449
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RIP CURRENT RISK UPGRADED TO HIGH FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES
(EAST OF OCEAN ISLE), AND MODERATE FOR NORTHERN HORRY/WEST
BRUNSWICK AS WELL AS PENDER COUNTY BEACHES. INCREASED SOUTH
SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED RIP RISK FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1)TODAY WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PARTS OF
THE AREA AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
2) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
HOT WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH
105 DEGREES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONT TO BRING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN, MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
FINALLY, DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND DRY FUELS A
STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MAINLY INLAND TERMINALS OF FLO AND LBT. OTHERWISE, BIG
STORY THIS VALID TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TODAY FROM 5 TO 10 KTS PRESENTLY TO
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY. ON THE
PLUS SIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR UNTIL THE
POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFT ABOUT
19Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT DUE TO INCREASED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VFR EXPECTED LATER SAT THRU MON.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW IN THE NEAR TERM, GETTING BOLSTERED TODAY
INTO FRIDAY BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. WITHIN THIS PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME HARD-TO-TIME FLUCTUATIONS WHERE
PART OR ALL OF THE AREA COULD FALL SUB-ADVISORY WITH WINDS. FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGS A COLD FROPA AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THAT WILL BE
QUITE BRIEF BEFORE VEERING BEGINS. SWELL ENERGY THROUGH MOST OF THE
ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 6-7
SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ055-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...31
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