490
FXUS62 KILM 182339
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPIRING SOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED
FIRE DANGER.
2) AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
3) GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HEAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING WITH 105
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TONIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2" THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE (STRONGEST ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST) FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED. EXPECT TO CONTINUE SEEING STORMS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SC, BUT STRUGGLING TO MAKE
MUCH HEADWAY NORTH. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH/OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE WILL HELP WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT
AGAIN THE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CONTINUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS IN
THE FORM OF AN INVERTED V SOUNDING, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25KT OR LESS, ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THEY WILL
BE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF 25KT WINDS/25KT STORM MOTION AND
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR THE AFTERNOON IS A STEP ABOVE ZERO.
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE/LOW COUPLED WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED, ALLOWING FOR SURFACING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-55 KT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE MIXING TO THE
SURFACE, SUGGESTING CONVECTION WITH ANY RESPECTABLE UPDRAFT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THUS AREAL
COVERAGE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL. TIMING IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM,
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR WITH STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BEING THE
BIGGER STORY. ISOLATED-SCATTERED EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER AT SC/INLAND
TERMINALS. REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 08-12Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WITHIN THE MVFR. ALONG WITH THE LOW CEILINGS, STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AT
TIMES. ENHANCED WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PREVENT LLWS
FROM BEING AN ISSUE, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VFR RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF FRI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE
RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. GALES PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS, AND WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GALE GUSTS, OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRI, THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR SAT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NORTHERLY SURGE AND THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUN SETTING UP RETURN FLOW. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES MON AND TUE WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT INCREASING SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
SIGNIFICANT UNTIL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. SEAS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ055-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256-280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...31
MARINE...III
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