218
FXUS62 KILM 190945
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
545 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TERMINAL FORECASTS UPDATED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE INTO TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE/LOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION
THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND
THEN AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PCP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SC WITH ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE AND REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT A BIT MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALIGNED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED, ALLOWING FOR SURFACING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 50 KT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE, SUGGESTING CONVECTION WITH ANY RESPECTABLE
UPDRAFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE TIMING EARLY TODAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE 90S OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPS BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
100 BEGINNING MON FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA AND SPOTS NEAR OR
ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE SOME AFTERNOONS. EXPECT
DAILY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK
IN A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR AND
THE CLOUDS AND PCP WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM W-SW TO E-NE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHRA OR ISO TSRA WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY MID AFTERNOON. ALL STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS
IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP WITH SCATTERED
STRATO CU AND SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THESE STORMS ARE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO 00Z THIS EVENING AND COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF IT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. INCLUDED POSSIBILITY IN INLAND TAFS
FOR NOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR RETURNS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN TSTMS COME MON NIGHT
INTO TUES ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS
THROUGH TODAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START OUT IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT WILL RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
GALES PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, AND WHAT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GALE GUSTS, OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR EARLY SAT BEFORE COMING BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES MON AND TUE WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT INCREASING
SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT UNTIL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO
BUILD SLOWLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
SETS UP.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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