334
FXUS62 KILM 191823
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
2) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL NEARSHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE RIDGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. TUE LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S IN A FEW
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY, KEEPING THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO
THE COAST WHILE ALSO ADDING IN A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST MON BUT COVERAGE
INCREASES TUE WITH WEAK FRONT, MORE LIKE A TROUGH, MOVING INTO THE
AREA. FRONT ENDS UP STALLING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION,
LINGERING THROUGH FRI. SCATTERED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL
TEMPER HIGHS A BIT WED-FRI. INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY DECREASING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FROM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THE RESULTING LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SC WHERE SKIES ARE
TRYING TO CLEAR A BIT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF FLO/LBT 02-04Z WITH THE LINE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST, ARRIVING AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS PRETTY LOW. THE EXTENT OF LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING/HEATING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WHEN
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARRIVES THIS EVENING. A SOLUTION WHERE
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION IS ALMOST
AS PROBABLE AS ONE WHERE SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOP.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ONCE ANY STORMS COME TO AN END
VFR WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SHORT DURATION SCA FOR ALL
WATERS. HEADLINE RUNS THROUGH 00Z, BUT EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP
BELOW ADVISORY HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE 00Z AND AN EARLY
CANCELLATION SEEMS LIKELY. COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SAT BEFORE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST DURING SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. LACK OF STRONG GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
MON/TUE, A COMBINATION OF INLAND HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT. FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING UNDER 15 KT AND DIRECTION BACKING FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 4-8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, ENDING UP A SOLID 3 FT SAT MORNING AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN.
SEAS THEN START TO BUILD MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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