610
FXUS62 KILM 200021
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
821 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED ILM WWA SECTION.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
BHS FOR STRONG S TO N LONGSHORE CURRENT AND RP.S FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL BOTH EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE RIDGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S IN A FEW AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY, KEEPING THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST WHILE ALSO
ADDING IN A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST MON BUT COVERAGE INCREASES
TUE WITH WEAK FRONT, MORE LIKE A TROUGH, MOVING INTO THE AREA.
FRONT ENDS UP STALLING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION,
LINGERING THROUGH FRI. SCATTERED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL
TEMPER HIGHS A BIT WED-FRI. INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. WILL EITHER CARRY P6SM -SHRA IN THE
PREVAILING WX OR INDICATE VCSH. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR WITH VSBY POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR BRIEFLY BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO INDICATE IN ANY SPECIFIC TAF. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT STRATOCU
AND ALTOCU NOW INTO THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. THERE-AFTER CI OR
HIGH ALTOCU WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FEW/SCT HIGH DIURNAL CU BASED
CLOUDS THRU DAYLIGHT SAT. WINDS OVERALL IN THE DIMINISHING PHASE
WITH A SLOW VEERING TO NW AFTER FROPA TONIGHT AND FURTHER
VEERING TO THE N-NE DAYLIGHT SAT AOB 10 KT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW. MAY SEE A RESULTANT WIND AKA
SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN/EVENING THAT WILL FURTHER VEER WINDS TO SE
AOB 10 KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEXT CFP SLATED FOR LATER TUE OR EARLY WED.
MARINE
DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SHORT DURATION SCA FOR
ALL WATERS. HEADLINE RUNS THROUGH 00Z, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW ADVISORY HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE 00Z AND
AN EARLY CANCELLATION SEEMS LIKELY. COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SAT BEFORE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST DURING SUN AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LACK OF STRONG GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION
TONIGHT WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KT
SUN INCREASES TO 15-20 KT MON/TUE, A COMBINATION OF INLAND
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SPEEDS DROPPING
UNDER 15 KT AND DIRECTION BACKING FROM NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING
TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY 4-8 FT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ENDING UP A
SOLID 3 FT SAT MORNING AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN. SEAS THEN START TO
BUILD MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...III
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