026
FXUS62 KILM 202349
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTS TO EXPAND NORTH ON
SUN, PEAKING IN STRENGTH MON. SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUN AND EVEN WARMER ON MON. THE SUBSIDENCE, LEADING TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STABILITY, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW
SUN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON, GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 90S, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY TUE DENTS THE RIDGE, BUT ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN MON. WARMTH
WILL ALSO EXTEND TO THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED BY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE TUE HIGHS
1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SIMILAR TO MON THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ONE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
AND WHILE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HEAT, DO
NOT ANTICIPATE A LOT OF COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE STARTS TO INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR DOMINATES THE 24 HR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. GFSLAMP
GUIDANCE INDICATING PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT OF JUST WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE MYRTLES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
RESPECTIVE TAFS BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE
PERIODIC CIRRUS ALTHOUGH NOT AS OPAQUE AS TODAY, ALONG WITH
FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELAXED SFC PG
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUN. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY GO
CALM ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS AND VARIABLE AOB 3 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WITH THE LAND BREEZE BECOMING PREVALENT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SEA BREEZE BY
MIDDAY SUN. AND IT LOOKS TO MAKE A MUCH BETTER PROGRESSION
INLAND WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
STARTING MON.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH MIGRATES OFF THE COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. INLAND
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS MON/TUE RESULTING IN A JUMP IN SPEEDS TO 15-20KT FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING FROM AROUND 2 FT THIS WEEKEND TO 3 FT MON AND 3-4 FT WITH
WIDESPREAD 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM TUE. A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW
WED MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND REDUCTION IN SPEEDS WILL LEAD
TO SEAS FALLING TO 2-3 FT WED. A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE REMAINS
DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH THE PERIOD GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH MON BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AS THE WIND
WAVE STARTS TO TRANSITION TO A SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...III
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