416
FXUS62 KILM 211828
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED
DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY FRIDAY.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT HINT OF TROUGHING ALOFT TUE AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE MORNING. SUBSIDENCE HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RESULTING CAP/MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HINDERING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TUE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COUPLED WITH
POST WAVE WESTERLY FLOW, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY WARMER HIGHS
AND A PINNED SEA BREEZE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-ATLANTIC LOW
CROSSES THE AREA TUE NIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA, A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK WED BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE A BIT MORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS AS FAR AS STORMS GO.
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR ON THU, BUT FRI A SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES, BRINGING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEK. RIDGING THEN RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY
UPPER 90S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THE WEEKEND DRY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TODAY. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AT COASTAL SITES AND
WILL MOVE INLAND, REACHING FLO/LBT 22-00Z. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SEA BREEZE WINDS AT INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH. ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING SPEEDS RUN 10-15 KT WITH AROUND 10 KT AT INLAND
TERMINALS ONCE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT; COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL KEEP FOG FROM BEING A CONCERN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK STARTING MONDAY.
MARINE
FLOW OVER THE WATERS TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAINS SOUTHERLY THROUGH TUE, WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS MON/TUE. A
WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED, LEADING TO
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FOR MUCH OF WED. MODEST NORTHEAST SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR 15 KT SUSTAINED
POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTING EAST AND
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INLAND WARMING SETS UP LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR THU. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATER MON, WIDESPREAD 3 FT WITH
OCCASIONAL 4 FT, AND TUE, 3-4 FT WITH 4 FT BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE.
SEAS DECREASE TUE NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. SOUTHERLY WAVE REMAINS DOMINANT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERIOD RUNNING 5-7 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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