447
FXUS62 KILM 212253
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED
DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY FRIDAY.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT HINT OF TROUGHING ALOFT TUE AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE MORNING. SUBSIDENCE HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RESULTING CAP/MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HINDERING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TUE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COUPLED WITH
POST WAVE WESTERLY FLOW, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY WARMER HIGHS
AND A PINNED SEA BREEZE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-ATLANTIC LOW
CROSSES THE AREA TUE NIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA, A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK WED BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE A BIT MORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS AS FAR AS STORMS GO.
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR ON THU, BUT FRI A SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES, BRINGING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEK. RIDGING THEN RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY
UPPER 90S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THE WEEKEND DRY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LATE
TONIGHT (MAINLY AT LBT/FLO) AS WELL AS SHOWERS/STORMS ALL
TERMINALS MON AFTN/EVE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
TUE/FRI.
MARINE
FLOW OVER THE WATERS TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAINS SOUTHERLY THROUGH TUE, WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS MON/TUE. A
WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED, LEADING TO
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FOR MUCH OF WED. MODEST NORTHEAST SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR 15 KT SUSTAINED
POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTING EAST AND
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INLAND WARMING SETS UP LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR THU. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATER MON, WIDESPREAD 3 FT WITH
OCCASIONAL 4 FT, AND TUE, 3-4 FT WITH 4 FT BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE.
SEAS DECREASE TUE NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. SOUTHERLY WAVE REMAINS DOMINANT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERIOD RUNNING 5-7 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...III
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