714
FXUS62 KILM 221826
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR TONIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND RAINFALL HAVE INCREASED FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TRENDING
TOWARD POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TRENDING TOWARD POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SO FAR ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING SOON WELL TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA AS WHAT I THINK WE WILL SEE IS A
DISSIPATING BROKEN LINE BEYOND SUNSET.
THE SEVERE/RAIN POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORTWAVE/FORCING MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HAD
OUR NC COUNTIES WELL COVERED WITH CONVECTION SOME LATER PANELS SHOW
THE MAIN FORCING MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH. SPC HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL TO MARGINAL JUST TO OUR NORTH SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE HAS A COUPLE
UPDRAFT HELICITY SWATHS MIXED IN AND SEEMINGLY FOR GOOD REASON.
AS FOR THE EXTENDED A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND KICKS UP
THE HEAT INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING NUMBERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW SEEMS TO RAMP UP AS WELL SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
WITH DECAYING/ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS ALONG THE COAST IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE WITH THIS ITERATION OF
THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS. BOTH WILL BE MARGINAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NW AND THEN NE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE.
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS IMPROVING
TO 2-3 FT. WINDS VEER TO THE SSW AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE ONCE MORE. SEAS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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