513
FXUS62 KILM 222349
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TRENDING
TOWARD POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TRENDING TOWARD POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SO FAR ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING SOON WELL TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA AS WHAT I THINK WE WILL SEE IS A
DISSIPATING BROKEN LINE BEYOND SUNSET.
THE SEVERE/RAIN POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORTWAVE/FORCING MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HAD
OUR NC COUNTIES WELL COVERED WITH CONVECTION SOME LATER PANELS SHOW
THE MAIN FORCING MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH. SPC HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL TO MARGINAL JUST TO OUR NORTH SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE HAS A COUPLE
UPDRAFT HELICITY SWATHS MIXED IN AND SEEMINGLY FOR GOOD REASON.
AS FOR THE EXTENDED A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND KICKS UP
THE HEAT INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING NUMBERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW SEEMS TO RAMP UP AS WELL SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
ONLY A VERY SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER/STORM THIS EVENING, MAINLY
INLAND AT LBT/FLO. A BIT BETTER RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
(MAINLY AT LBT/FLO) TUE AM. OTHERWISE, BREEZY/GUSTY SW WINDS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE TUE.
00Z WED THRU SAT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS. BOTH WILL BE MARGINAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NW AND THEN NE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE.
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS IMPROVING
TO 2-3 FT. WINDS VEER TO THE SSW AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE ONCE MORE. SEAS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SHK
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