623
FXUS62 KILM 230630
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THE MAIN FORECAST
PACKAGE. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE BROUGHT DOWN A BIT
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND TODAY.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE; HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND
TODAY.
AS OF 2 AM EDT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG NORTH
AND WEST GEORGIA, WITH A LOOSE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOTED
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE FOOTHILLS OF ATHENS TO
NEAR THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER IN COLUMBUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE ENE, WHERE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT WILL ALLOW FOR VORTICITY TO
STRENGTHEN ALOFT. THE BROKEN LINE CURRENTLY IN THE PEACH STATE
WILL GAIN MORE ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WITHIN THE
SHORTWAVE MATURES AND ESTABLISHES MORE VERTICAL CONTINUITY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO, THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE RIDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PEE DEE REGION AND NC
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTO PENDER COUNTY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY DRY AIR
INTRUSION, KEEPING THE ACTIVITY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. DCAPE
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, BUT IS STILL OVER
1000 J/KG, SO MIXING DOWN A FEW STRONG GUSTS WOULDN'T BE TOO
HARD. REGARDLESS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FORECAST DRIES
OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRINGS IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HEAT INDICES IN THE COASTAL REGIONS WILL LIKELY HIT THE TRIPLE
DIGITS TODAY, BUT REMAIN UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105
DEGREES FOR 2+ HOURS).
KEY MESSAGE 2
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE; HEAT
ADVISORY POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
DRY FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY
MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY, BECOMING THE LOWER 90S INLAND, UPPER
80S AT THE COAST BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SIGNIFICANT HEAT STARTS CREEPING IN, AS
RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC PUSHES BACK INTO THE SOUTH. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES RETURN FRIDAY, AND APPEAR TO GET INTO HEAT ADVISORY
TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER!
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO KILM, KFLO, AND KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, BUT USED
PROB30 GROUPS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
THESE SAME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. STOUT GUSTS OUT OF THE SW UP TO 25
KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, CALMING BY SUNSET. WINDS
START TO VEER TOWARDS THE NW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS
WOULD INCLUDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS, AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT
TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM. GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TIGHTEN UP TO A FRESH BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL LINGER AROUND 4-6 FT
OUT 60 NM. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT,
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NNW AND IMPROVE TO A MODERATE
BREEZE. SEAS ALSO IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING
TO A GENTLE BREEZE, WITH SEAS AT 2-3 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SSW BY FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING ABOUT THE
SAME. GRADIENT WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, RAMPING UP TO A FRESH BREEZE ONCE AGAIN, WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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